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A Companion to Rare Coin Collecting - Grading Services
Since the late 1970s, the issue of grading has dominated numismatics.
This is mainly due to the significant premiums that have accrued in
so-called "high-end" coins, those graded MS-63 and above. The resulting
sensitivity between grade and value has given rise to a number of
independent "third party" grading services that, for a fee, will examine
coins and issue a certificate expressing their opinion as to the grade.
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At present, there are three major services engaged in the certification
of coins. The wholesale "bid" prices for coins certified
by these three services are reported in the weekly Certified Coin
Dealer Newsletter. The following sections deal with each service
and their respective strengths and weaknesses.
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The first on the scene in 1974, the American Numismatic Association
Certification Service (ANACS) began by issuing certificates
for authenticity only. Five years later, they started assigning
numerical grades to all qualities of coin. As an arbitrator
of authenticity, ANACS remains unmatched in its ability and
enjoys widespread respect from the industry. Their approach
to grading is another matter however, and it is in this area
that they often find themselves at variance with the commercial
sector of numismatics.
To begin with, ANACS' grading system operates from a premise
that all coins are MS-70 quality immediately after striking.
This means that only those blemishes and marks that are a
result of mishandling after the dies have parted act to lower
the grade of the coin. Known as the "technical"
interpretation of grading, a persuasive argument could be
made to support it however the realities of the market dictate
otherwise.
A long-standing debate argues the fundamental purpose of
grading; whether it is merely a descriptive tool to communicate
the amount of damage incurred after striking, or a ranking
system to determine value. Despite the theoretical appeal
of the first argument, it fails to address the practical use
of grading as employed in the marketplace.
Another deficiency of the technical system is that it often
produces widely inconsistent grades. For example, given two
coins, identical except for strike, the more sharply struck
piece will enjoy higher demand and will consequently command
a higher price. But a sharply struck coin with a technical
grade of MS-63 or MS- 64 could be valued higher than a weakly
struck coin of the same date and mint which might merit a
technical grade of MS-65.
But the greatest problem for ANACS is with its credibility
among collectors. While the organization has explicitly denied
any connection between their assigned grade and the market
value of an item, they have proven vulnerable to the reinterpretation
of grading standards brought about by substantial increases
in the published "bid" prices. Although the cases
brought to light a few years ago were only anecdotal, enough
evidence was presented to show that several times since 1980
ANACS has tightened their grading criteria to "keep in
line" with the market. This apparent conflict with their
policy of detachment from commercial interests has made their
grading system somewhat untenable among some serious collectors.
Another problem that was brought up is the question of staff
competence. ANACS is operated by the American Numismatic Association,
a non-profit organization, and lacks the funding to offer
salaries competitive with what a skilled grader could earn
on the open market. This results in a high turnover of experienced
graders and a general lack of market or trading experience
among the newly hired.
Despite the handicaps, ANACS enjoys considerable respect
with the public at large. They are unquestionably the most
"independent" of the three major services, having
no ties whatsoever to any commercial interest. They have a
long track record as well, with high visibility to the 25,000+
members of ANA. As a result, the demand (and prices) for coins
with ANACS certificates remain relatively high.
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The second of the three major services is the Numismatic
Certification Institute (NCI), an affiliate of Heritage Capital
Corporation. Founded in 1984, NCI espouses the grading philosophy
of Jim Halperin, set forth in The NCI Grading Guide. It can
be characterized as more commercial than that of ANACS, incorporating
all factors which the market considers when trading coins,
including strike, luster, surface preservation (bagmarks and
hairlines) and overall eye appeal (toning). On balance, grades
assigned by NCI is usually at the high end of the range of
reasonably likely grades.
NCI is regarded as a very consistent service; two professional
coin appraisers grade every coin. Yet, the prices for NCI
certified coins reported in the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter
generally run less (sometimes substantially less) than prices
for the two other certification services. This is attributable
to several factors. First, is the "high end of the range"
grading mentioned earlier, which places many NCI coins on
the liberal side when viewed by some other dealers. In the
1879 dollar example referred to above, over three-quarters
of the dealers examining the coin would have graded it only
MS-63 or MS-64, rather than MS-65. Second, is the nature of
the prices reported by the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter
They are intended to be "sight-unseen" bids, or
the price of a "low-end" example for a given grade.
The actual trading range for NCI coins is quite wide, and
given the opportunity to examine the coins prior to purchase,
many dealers will pay prices well in excess of those listed
on the Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter. Occasionally, NCI
coins may even bring prices commensurate with those of ANACS
or PCGS. This is the exception rather than the rule, however,
and collectors purchasing average quality NCI coins should
usually expect to pay considerably less than they would for
a similarly graded PCGS or recently graded ANACS coin.
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The newest of the three major services, the Professional
Coin Grading Service (PCGS), is also the most unique. PCGS
began operations in January 1986, and in their first year
graded nearly twice the number of coins as their next two
competitors combined. PCGS is really not a grading service
at all. It could more accurately be termed a valuation service,
since a key aspect of their product is the establishment of
a sight-unseen cash market for their certified coins, with
guaranteed liquidity at the published bid prices of the participating
dealers.
PCGS seals each coin they grade in a permanent hard plastic
case (known in the industry as a "slab.") Since
the coin cannot be removed without destroying the case, and
since these cases are inert (non-interactive with the surface
of the coin), sight-unseen coin trading becomes feasible as
the coin's appearance should not change once it has been sealed.
PCGS will not grade a coin if it has been damaged, if it contains
traces of PVC, or would otherwise be considered a "problem"
coin by some dealers who might have to purchase it sight-unseen.
Another fundamental tenet of PCGS is the one grade/one price
philosophy. It asserts that all coins of a given grade are
basically worth the same price. This assumption upsets the
basis of the wholesale marketplace, and many independent dealers.
There is clearly a far greater difference both in appearance
and value between the best MS-64 1881-S Dollar and the worst
MS-64 '81-S Dollar, than between the best MS-64 and the worst
MS-65 '81-S Dollar. The unbroken continuum of condition into
which coins fall affirms this fact. However, the market value
in the PCGS system of the first pair of coins mentioned is
identical, while that of the second pair differs by over 100%.
While this situation offends the sensibilities of many old-line
wholesalers, for the uninformed investor it is nothing short
of a panacea. The coin has become an object that can be purchased
and, more importantly, liquidated at a constant grade at or
near a published "bid" price. No questions asked.
The adjustment of grading standards to meet published bid
prices has been rendered impossible. Bid prices for a given
coin must now adjust to the supply and demand characteristics
of PCGS coins at a given grade. The impact of this constant
grading standard will greatly alter both the movement and
reporting of prices across the industry.
There are numerous other grading services of varying size
and repute. None approach the "big three" in volume
and organizational strength so the market for coins certified
by one of these organizations is very high. Among the more
notable of the smaller services are the International Numismatic
Society (INS) in Washington, D.C., the Rare Coin Exchange
in Chicago and the Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC).
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Now that we've established the subjective nature of coin
grading, consider how these coins, once certified, can effect
the composition of the coin market. Wholesale purchases of
coins is often a risky venture especially when dealers disagree
with the certification. Naturally, dealers who send coins
to be certified will only resell those coins as certified
coins if the grade meets or exceeds the grade they assessed
when they purchased it.
For example, a bag of 1880 silver dollars is auctioned off
and graded raw (uncertified) by 20 dealers. Ten thought they
were MS-63 grade and 10 thought they rated MS-64. Let's assume
that the coins were then purchased by one of the dealers who
felt they were MS-64. The dealer then sends them to one of
the major certification services and they come back graded
as only an MS-63. Now, it would make little sense for the
dealer to attempt to sell these coins as certified, since
the dealer paid a higher price for the coins than he or she
could hope to receive for them as MS-63. The dealer will therefore
uncertify them by breaking the PCGS case or destroying the
grading certificate and either resubmit the coins, hoping
to receive the higher grade, or sell them raw to another dealer
who agrees with the MS-64 grade. In either event, the coins
will not be sold as MS-63 certified coins.
Since they were borderline coins, high-end 63 or low-end
64, the dealer is justified in hoping for the higher grade
upon resubmission. The inconsistencies in the grading process
and the personal preferences held by different graders working
for the same service will often result in different grades,
especially such borderline cases as this. The result is that
the high end, or premium quality coins, of a particular grade
range are less likely to remain "certified" than
are the average or lower quality coins in the same grade range.
Therefore, the quality of most certified coins on the market
is likely to be in the middle or lower end of a particular
grade range.
Go
to Next Chapter "The Market"
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